The influence of non-resident investment on farm land prices in Manitoba and Saskatchewan

Abstract

A discussion of the effects of rising land prices establishes the hypothesized influence of non-resident investment on land prices as a problem. This thesis determines whether non-resident ownership of land has contributed to rising land prices specifically in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The theory underlying the demand for land is developed to form a hypothesis on the effect of non-resident investment on land prices. Private non-resident buyers shift the aggregate demand for land by increasing the number of buyers in the market, by paying relatively more for land than residents, and by influencing the expectations of other buyers and sellers in the market. Thus, private non-resident investment is hypothesized to increase land prices. Public investment in farm land, particularly in Saskatchewan, decreased the future number of land transactions. The presence of the Government increases the number of buyers. However, the overall effect pubic investment has on price is difficult to hypothesize because of the regulations under which the Land Bank operates. The Saskatchewan Land Bank Commission bases its purchasee price of alnd on past comparable sales and therefore likely offers less than market value for land in a rising market. Private buyers may be influenced by the prices the Saskatchewan Land Bank Commission pays for land. Therefore it is difficult to hypothesize the effect of public investment on land prices in a rising market... The results of the thesis confirm the hypothesis that private non-resident investment has influenced land prices by increasing the aggregate demand for farm land. The results establish aggregate demand has been affected not only by the increased number of buyers in the market, but also in some cases by the willingness of non-residents to pay higher prices for farm land. The results also establish that in the past, The Saskatchewan Land Bank Commission has stabilized land prices by paying less than market value for land.