Application of probabilistic life cycle cost analysis in pavement management
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Date
2018
Authors
Roque Pena, Carlymar D'Andrea
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Abstract
Transportation agencies seek to optimize their public budget to finance the construction and maintenance of pavements. Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is a decision support tool that allows agencies to contrast and optimize infrastructure design alternatives based on the costs of the asset over its lifetime. In this thesis, statistical distributions were developed to study the variability associated with LCCA inputs based on agency historical data of the Province of Manitoba and the City of Winnipeg. A case study was used to compare the deterministic and the probabilistic computational approaches results. The results demonstrated that a probabilistic LCCA provides reliability levels for the evaluation of the total project cost, which allows for analyzing the risk associated with each alternative and avoiding cost overruns. It is recommended that transportation agencies consider probabilistic LCCA as part of their decision-making process due to the economic benefits and reliability levels that this approach provides.
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Keywords
Life cycle cost analysis, Pavement management, Uncertainty, Risk, Reliability