An integrated modelling approach for estimating grain truck activity in the Canadian Prairie Region

dc.contributor.authorDuke, Jennifer
dc.contributor.examiningcommitteeMehran, Babak (Civil Engineering)en_US
dc.contributor.examiningcommitteeMontufar, Jeannette (Civil Engineering)en_US
dc.contributor.supervisorRegehr, Jonathan
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-29T14:40:49Z
dc.date.available2023-03-29T14:40:49Z
dc.date.copyright2023-03-28
dc.date.issued2023-03-28
dc.date.submitted2023-03-28T23:55:50Zen_US
dc.degree.disciplineCivil Engineeringen_US
dc.degree.levelMaster of Science (M.Sc.)en_US
dc.description.abstractNetwork resiliency is foundational for the economic well-being of the agricultural industry in the Canadian Prairie Region (CPR) due to the agricultural sector relying so heavily on the rural road network. This research develops and applies an integrated modelling approach to estimate grain truck activity in the CPR. The modelling approach integrates methodologies from the truck traffic monitoring and freight demand modelling fields to establish sector-specific activity patterns. The approach consists of a 3-step commodity model, the Grain Tonnage Demand (GTD) model, which is then converted to the Hopper Bottom Truck Demand (HBTD) model using truck body type data. The results of the HBTD are then compared to those obtained using the Hopper Bottom Truck Traffic (HBTT) model, which is independently developed from truck traffic monitoring data. The comparison of the HBTD and HBTT results considers the truck kilometres travelled (TKT) by hopper bottom trucks normalized by network distance, focusing on activity in southwestern Manitoba. This research found the HBTD model to underestimate the HBTT model by 39 percent. Since neither model can be considered as ground truth, the difference should not be interpreted as an error, but rather as a way to assess the relative strengths and limitations of the different modelling approaches. For the HBTD model, these limitations relate to challenges in modelling grain activity in urban areas, the exclusion of dump trucks from the model, an inability to include all segments of the grain supply chain, trip assignment assumptions, and the limited number of commodities considered. Likewise, for the HBTT model, limitations relate to data collection approaches, sampling methods, data processing techniques, the assignment of counts to the network, and the assumption that all hopper bottom trucks carry grain. Further integration of the approaches and resolution of the limitations could yield better agreement in the future.en_US
dc.description.noteMay 2023en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1993/37226
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.rightsopen accessen_US
dc.subjectCommodity based demand modelen_US
dc.subjectHopper bottom truck activityen_US
dc.subjectGISen_US
dc.subjectTruck body type dataen_US
dc.subjectSector specific modellingen_US
dc.subjectFreight demand modelen_US
dc.titleAn integrated modelling approach for estimating grain truck activity in the Canadian Prairie Regionen_US
dc.typemaster thesisen_US
local.subject.manitobayesen_US
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