Major precipitation events and the 2009 Red River flood
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Date
2019
Authors
Smith, Hilary
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Abstract
The future of changes in flooding with climate change is an important issue in the Red River Basin (RRB). It was determined that there were three storms that produced a substantial amount of precipitation that would have contributed to the 2009 Red River flood (October 10 - 14, 2008, November 4 - 7, 2008, and March 22 - 26, 2009). This thesis examined the characteristics of these storms using a combination of observations and model datasets. Using the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.4.1 from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to simulate both a historical reanalysis (CTRL) and Pseudo- Global Warming (PGW), these storms were examined to determine how they might change with a warmer and more moist climate. Due to low level stability, the moisture for the three storms was advected into the RRB from the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Baja and/or the Gulf of Mexico via atmospheric rivers (ARs). In the WRF PGW scenario, AR strength increased in all three storms, precipitation during the October 2008 and March 2009 storms increased but decreased in the November 2008 storm. When considering the source region of the moisture, the observed precipitation increase of 2 - 7.5% in the October 2008 and March 2009 storms is comparable with that expected using the temperature dependence relation from Salzmann (2016). Other floods in the RRB, but not all, are affected by ARs and associated precipitation. Overall, this thesis provides insight into storms that contribute to flooding regimes in the RRB and how they may change with a warming climate.
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Keywords
Red River flood, 2009 Red River flood, WRF CTRL and PGW, Atmospheric rivers, Climate change, Precipitation, Storms