dc.contributor.author	Du, Shuai
dc.contributor.examiningcommittee	Pai, Jeffrey (Warren Centre for Actuarial Studies and Research) Boyd, Milton (Agricultural and Food Sience, Agribusiness and Agricultural Economics )	en_US
dc.contributor.supervisor	Hao, Xuemiao (Warren Centre for Actuarial Studies and Research) Porth, Lysa (Warren Centre for Actuarial Studies and Research)	en_US
dc.date.accessioned	2017-08-28T19:22:01Z
dc.date.available	2017-08-28T19:22:01Z
dc.date.issued	2017
dc.degree.discipline	Management	en_US
dc.degree.level	Master of Science (M.Sc.)	en_US
dc.description.abstract	The objective of this thesis is to establish predictive models for forage yield (productivity, tons per acre) using most relevant weather variables, such as precipitation and temperature from April to June. The outcome of this study is expected to be utilized to design indices and/or to set triggers for CAT bonds on forage crops in Ontario for the Government of Canada as it is exposed to tremendous agriculture risk exposures. We use forage crops data in Ontario, Canada, as an example. We propose to apply a single predictive model on a whole region, which is a vast area consisting of eight to ten counties which have a similar geographical environment. Seven models are tested for five regions with variables such as monthly rainfall, three months cumulative rainfall, average temperature, CDD (cooling degree days), etc. A new approach called weighted average temperature adjustment (WATA) is employed to deal with temperature data. The results demonstrate that the selected predictive model(s) consistently and considerably better explain the relationship between forage yield and weather variables for regions.	en_US
dc.description.note	October 2017	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/1993/32382
dc.language.iso	eng	en_US
dc.rights	open access	en_US
dc.subject	Agriculture	en_US
dc.subject	yield	en_US
dc.subject	weather	en_US
dc.subject	precipitation	en_US
dc.subject	temperature	en_US
dc.subject	Models	en_US
dc.subject	productivity	en_US
dc.title	On predictive models of forage crops productivity by using weather variables: an application in the province of Ontario, Canada	en_US
dc.type	master thesis	en_US

On predictive models of forage crops productivity by using weather variables: an application in the province of Ontario, Canada

Files

Original bundle

License bundle

Collections