Predicting land use transitions on land neighboring Riding Mountain National Park

Abstract

This study examines the influence of geophysical and economic factors on conversion of wetlands and grassland to cropland in the agricultural production region surrounding Riding Mountain National Park. An econometric land use share model is specified, using annual (2011-2021) parcel-level observations of crop share derived from the AAFC Cropland Inventory. Results suggest a positive correlation between crop revenue and cropland share, along with strong relationships between geophysical characteristics of the parcel and cropland share. Notably, income has a greater impact on cropland share on parcels with higher productivity soil. The parameters of the model are used to identify parcels that are at highest risk of conversion.