An econometric analysis of sunflower production in Manitoba

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Pietryk, James Walter
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Sunflower production has fluctuated widely over the past 20 years because of variations in yield and the number of hectares seeded each year. This has resulted in uncertainity of availability of supply to the processing industry, fluctuating income levels to producers and hesitancy in developing effective Government programs. In this thesis the problem of variation in the supply of sunflower seed in Manitoba was analyzed by attempting to identify the factors which determine the allocation of the land to the crop. The objectives of the study were to explain the variation in aggregate sunflower seed supply and to predict the seeded hectarage of sunflowers in response to the factors identified as deterministic. These were accomplished by formulating and estimating suitable econometric models to measure producers' response... The "expected" gross receipts relations among crops were deterministic in the allocation of resources among the alternative crops. This 'prima facie' economic rational however, was not the most important criteria identified by the quantitative results of the models. From the results it was determined that the quantity of land seeded in the previous time period was the most influential factor. The author interpreted this relationship in terms of the psychological reaction in total to the broad management successes or failures in the previous time period. In conclusion, it was stated that the institutional affect must be incorporated into the economic relationships if actual on-farm criteria are to be used to measure producers' responses.