Mathematical analysis of vaccination models for the transmission dynamics of oncogenic and warts-causing HPV types

Abstract

The thesis uses mathematical modeling and analysis to provide insights into the transmission dynamics of Human papillomavirus (HPV), and associated cancers and warts, in a community. A new deterministic model is designed and used to assess the community-wide impact of mass vaccination of new sexually-active susceptible females with the anti-HPV Gardasil vaccine. Conditions for the existence and asymptotic stability of the associated equilibria are derived. Numerical simulations show that the use of Gardasil vaccine could lead to the effective control of the spread of HPV in the community if the vaccine coverage is at least 78%. The model is extended to include the dynamics of the low- and high-risk HPV types and the combined use of the Gardasil and Cervarix anti-HPV vaccines. Overall, this study shows that the prospect of the effective community-wide control of HPV using the currently-available anti-HPV vaccines are encouraging.