Winnipeg futures : an application of Delphi forecasting to processes of urban growth

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Thraves, Bernard D.,
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This research utilizes a Delphi opinion survey to ascertain the prospective nature of growth within various sectors of the Winnipeg urban economy. An initial discussion reflects on the various development programs and sectoral growth projections which have been formulated for the city. Where possible, attempts are made to demonstrate the interdependency of change in demographic, residential, industrial, transportational and problematic issues. On the basis of the sectoral reviews a series of future probing questions are constructed and circulated to a group of thirty urban experts representing public, private and academic interests. Two rounds of questioning are evaluated and the consensus opinions are tabulated and contrasted with forecasts and projections derived by the use of other research techniques. Major research findings suggest that urban development in Winnipeg will be characterized by: a relatively low demographic growth rate in which immigration will continue to play a significant part; residential development which will become marked by considerable public sector involvement and increasing constructional densities; industrial growth which will remain largely closeted in well defined areas of the city but will also be of such a type as to be conducive to the regeneration of core area employment; transportational developments which will emphasize public transit and a limited constructional program; and, urban problems which will be primarily concerned with issues of inner city renewal, and the provision of adequate housing and transportation for all citizens. The sectoral reviews and Delphi forecasts are combined in the drafting of contrasting growth scenarios for the period 1975-1985...