Dynamics of Multi-strain Age-structured Model for Malaria Transmission
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Date
2013-08-22
Authors
Forouzannia, Farinaz
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Abstract
The thesis is based on the use of mathematical modeling and analysis to gain insightinto the transmission dynamics of malaria in a community. A new deterministic
model for assessing the role of age-structure on the disease dynamics is designed.
The model undergoes backward bifurcation, a dynamic phenomenon characterized
by the co-existence of a stable disease-free and an endemic equilibrium of the model
when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. It is shown that adding
age-structure to the basic model for malaria transmission does not alter its essential
qualitative dynamics. The study is extended to incorporate the use of anti-malaria
drugs. Numerical simulations of the extended model suggest that for the case when
treatment does not cause drug resistance (and the reproduction number of each of the
two strains exceed unity), the model undergoes competitive exclusion. The impact
of various effectiveness levels of the treatment strategy is assessed.
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Keywords
Malaria transmission dynamics, Age-structured, Endemic equilibrium, Global asymptotic stability, Backward bifurcation, Simulations