Addressing the risks of invasive plants through spatial predictive modelling

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dc.contributor.authorLindgren, Cory John
dc.contributor.examiningcommitteeWatler, Doreen (Environment & Geography) Van Acker, Rene (Plant Science) Jones, Jeanne (Mississippi State University)en_US
dc.contributor.supervisorWalker, Dave (Environment and Geography)en_US
dc.date.accessioned2013-04-04T16:06:29Z
dc.date.available2013-04-04T16:06:29Z
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.date.issued2012en_US
dc.date.issued2012en_US
dc.date.issued2012en_US
dc.degree.disciplineEnvironment and Geographyen_US
dc.degree.levelDoctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)en_US
dc.description.abstractThe objective of this dissertation is to extend the use of spatial predictive modelling for use by biosecurity agencies to help prevent the introductions of new and emerging invasive plants (i.e., pests). A critical review of international and national policy instruments found that they did not effectively articulate how spatial predictive modelling could be incorporated into the biosecurity toolbox. To determine how spatial predictive modelling could be extended I modelled the potential distribution of Tamarix and Lythrum salicaria in Prairie Canada using a genetic algorithm. New seasonal growth data was used to interpolate a growing degree-day’s risk surface for L. salicaria. Models were developed using suites of predictive variables as well as different data partitioning methods and evaluated using different performance measures. Expert evaluation was found to important in final model selection. The results indicated that both invasive plants have yet to reach their potential distribution in Prairie Canada. The spatial models can be used to direct risk-based surveillance efforts and to support biosecurity policy decisions. The results of this dissertation conclude that spatial predictive modelling is an informative tool that needs to be incorporated into the biosecurity toolbox. A phytosanitary standard is proposed to guide toolbox development.en_US
dc.description.noteMay 2013en_US
dc.identifier.citationCanadian Journal of Plant Science 90:111-124en_US
dc.identifier.citationRisk Analysis 32:9-15en_US
dc.identifier.citationWetlands 32:885-893en_US
dc.identifier.citationCanadian Field Naturalist 126:xxx-xxxen_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1993/18344
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherCanadian Journal of Plant Scienceen_US
dc.publisherRisk Analysisen_US
dc.publisherWetlandsen_US
dc.publisherCanadian Field Naturalisten_US
dc.rightsopen accessen_US
dc.subjectspatial modellingen_US
dc.subjectbiosecurityen_US
dc.titleAddressing the risks of invasive plants through spatial predictive modellingen_US
dc.typedoctoral thesisen_US
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