Sensitivity of probable maximum flood estimates in the lower Nelson River Basin

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dc.contributor.authorSagan, Kevin
dc.contributor.examiningcommitteeAsadzadeh, Masoud (Civil Engineering) Stewart, Ron (Environment and Geography)en_US
dc.contributor.supervisorStadnyk, Tricia (Civil Engineering)en_US
dc.date.accessioned2018-01-10T17:15:05Z
dc.date.available2018-01-10T17:15:05Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.degree.disciplineCivil Engineeringen_US
dc.degree.levelMaster of Science (M.Sc.)en_US
dc.description.abstractThe sensitivity of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) estimates in the Lower Nelson River Basin (LNRB) was tested to hydrological model choice, parameterization, and climate change impacts on PMF inputs. Three hydrological models were employed in the analysis: an existing PMF model in SSARR, and HEC-HMS and WATFLOOD models that were recalibrated for PMF conditions. The impact of model choice was less significant than that of choice of calibration period. Model parameter uncertainty was explored in a limited capacity using Monte Carlo-based sampling; parameterization was also more impactful than choice of model. Regional Climate Model (RCM) data was used to project climate change impacts on PMF inputs. RCM projections were highly variable and produced the greatest range of uncertainty about the baseline. PMF is a critical dam design and safety consideration; this research improves the understanding of PMF estimates in the context of climate change and advancements in hydrological modelling.en_US
dc.description.noteFebruary 2018en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1993/32778
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.rightsopen accessen_US
dc.subjectProbable maximum flooden_US
dc.subjectProbable maximum precipitationen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectDam safetyen_US
dc.subjectDesign flooden_US
dc.titleSensitivity of probable maximum flood estimates in the lower Nelson River Basinen_US
dc.typemaster thesisen_US
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