Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment in water budgets simulated by the variable infiltration capacity model for Canadian subarctic watersheds

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dc.contributor.authorLilhare, Rajtantra
dc.contributor.authorPokorny, Scott
dc.contributor.authorDéry, Stephen J.
dc.contributor.authorStadnyk, Tricia
dc.contributor.authorKoenig, Kristina
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-18T05:55:52Z
dc.date.available2020-08-18T05:55:52Z
dc.date.issued2020-01-20
dc.date.submitted2020-08-18T05:55:51Zen_US
dc.description.abstractIn this study, we evaluate uncertainties propagated through different climate data sets in seasonal and annual hydrological simulations over 10 subarctic watersheds of northern Manitoba, Canada, using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Further, we perform a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the VIC model using a robust and state-of-the-art approach. The VIC model simulations utilize the recently developed variogram analysis of response surfaces (VARS) technique that requires in this application more than 6,000 model simulations for a 30-year (1981–2010) study period. The method seeks parameter sensitivity, identifies influential parameters, and showcases streamflow sensitivity to parameter uncertainty at seasonal and annual timescales. Results suggest that the Ensemble VIC simulations match observed streamflow closest, whereas global reanalysis products yield high flows (0.5–3.0 mm day−1 ) against observations and an overestimation (10–60%) in seasonal and annual water balance terms. VIC parameters exhibit seasonal importance in VARS, and the choice of input data and performance metrics substantially affect sensitivity analysis. Uncertainty propagation due to input forcing selection in each water balance term (i.e., total runoff, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration) is examined separately to show both time and space dimensionality in available forcing data at seasonal and annual timescales. Reliable input forcing, the most influential model parameters, and the uncertainty envelope in streamflow prediction are presented for the VIC model. These results, along with some specific recommendations, are expected to assist the broader VIC modelling community and other users of VARS and land surface schemes, to enhance their modelling applications.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Grant/Award Number: NSERC CRD 44425 RC15-3100; Manitoba Hydroen_US
dc.identifier.citationLilhare, R., Pokorny, S., Déry, S. J., Stadnyk, T. A., Koenig, K. A., 2019. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment in water budgets simulated by the variable infiltration capacity model for Canadian subarctic watersheds. Hydrol Process. 34:2057–2075. http://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13711en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/hyp.13711
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1993/34873
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons, Ltd.en_US
dc.rightsopen accessen_US
dc.subjecthydrological modellingen_US
dc.subjectlower Nelson River basinen_US
dc.subjectsensitivity analysisen_US
dc.subjectuncertainty assessmenten_US
dc.subjectVARSen_US
dc.subjectVIC modelen_US
dc.subjectVIC parametersen_US
dc.subjectwater balanceen_US
dc.titleSensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment in water budgets simulated by the variable infiltration capacity model for Canadian subarctic watershedsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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