Modeling the impact of intelligent transportation systems on surface goods movement in Canada
Sabounghi, Raouf Lewis
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The introduction of intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies is changing the face of transportation in North America. Combined with transport deregulation, free trade agreements, and harmonization of vehicle weights and dimensions which have resulted in an explosion of policies that the industry has yet to cope with. These changes have unleashed competitive forces within and between the modes. Competition over the movement of goods is fierce within and between the rail and trucking modes. The market share in this area is influenced by many factors, particularly the Level Of Service (LOS). The two directly measurable LOS attributes, cost and travel time, and the less measurable ones such as goods tracking and reliability, are all affected by the introduction of ITS technologies. This research focused on the ITS technologies introduced in the last five years and those available for introduction in the next ten years, the forecasted penetration of ITS in the different sectors, and its current and foreseeable effect on the intermodal split by applications and commodity groups. Technology impact measures were developed and integrated into, a forecasting model. Data obtained from government, industry, and research institutions sources were correlated with the level of implementation and degree of penetration of specific ITS applications. Transportation experts from the different transportation sectors were surveyed and expert panels were used to estimate a number of parameters. Fuzzy mathematical treatment was used to incorporate subjective judgment into the models. In addition, a method for converting LOS attributes that are not directly measurable to equivalent rate increment values was demonstrated. This research has produced the first extensive analysis of ITS in Canada, including a benefit-cost analysis of commercial vehicle operations (CVO) deployment scenarios. A LOS model, an Enhanced Modal Shift (EMS) model and an impact measurement policy development. Governments as well as rail and trucking companies will benefit from an advanced decision-support system that facilitates the formulation of appropriate policies. This research attempts to answer the questions associated with the strategic selection and introduction of technology.