A critical analysis of the theory of cascading nuclear proliferation in the Middle East
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Date
2020-08-25
Authors
McDaniel, Katelyn
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Abstract
This thesis analyzes the theory of cascading nuclear proliferation and the often alluded to notion that if Iran develops nuclear weapon capabilities, it will motivate other nations in the Middle East to likewise proliferate. Through the exploration of why countries seek to acquire nuclear weapons, four main motivating factors are identified- security concerns; internal considerations; external considerations and prestige; and feasibility. These motivations are used as a framework to examine the impact Iranian nuclear weapons could have on regional nuclear ambitions using the case studies of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Analysis of the impact of Iranian proliferation on both cases indicates that although Iranian proliferation would pose a challenge to both nations, at present it most likely would be an insufficient driver for nuclear proliferation. This research challenges the utility of the theory of cascading nuclear proliferation and suggests that a multifaceted approach to predicting nuclear proliferation would be more useful.
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Keywords
Politics, Middle East, Political studies, International relations, Nuclear proliferation