Investigation of the occurrence of ice jams on the Lower Red River in Manitoba
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Date
2020
Authors
Becket, Morgann
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Abstract
The Lower Red River in Manitoba regularly experiences ice jam flooding, with the most severe events occurring between Lockport and Netley Lake. This research investigates the timing and frequency of ice jamming on this section of the Lower Red River, the relationship between ice jams and antecedent conditions, and different ice jam prediction methods and their suitability for the study area. By gaining a better understanding of ice jamming trends in the area, this research provides accessible prediction methods that can help guide decisions related to the risk and severity of spring ice jamming.
A database of ice jam events was developed with each event given a severity rating from 1-5, based on the resulting flood from the ice jam. Out of 54 ice jam events from 1962-2017, the most common event locations were found to be Sugar Island, Selkirk Bridge, and the Netley Creek Confluence. All ice jam events occurred when the peak spring flow exceeded 1000 cms and all severe events (severity 3+) occurred when peak spring flows exceeded 1500 cms.
Three different ice jam prediction models including a threshold model, regression model, and discriminate function analysis (DFA) were developed using meteorological and hydrometric parameter data. The threshold model proved to be the best tool to predict severe events, as its predictions differentiated all severe event years from non-event years with only one false positive result. The quadratic three-outcome DFA had success in predicting minor ice jam years (severity 1-2) and differentiating them from severe ice jam or no ice jam years and is therefore recommended to use alongside the threshold model. The regression model was not as effective as the threshold model or DFA in predicting ice jamming.
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Keywords
Ice Jamming, Lower Red River, Manitoba, Hydraulics, Modelling
Citation
APA