Sensitivity of probable maximum flood estimates in the lower Nelson River Basin
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Date
2017
Authors
Sagan, Kevin
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Abstract
The sensitivity of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) estimates in the Lower Nelson River Basin (LNRB) was tested to hydrological model choice, parameterization, and climate change impacts on PMF inputs. Three hydrological models were employed in the analysis: an existing PMF model in SSARR, and HEC-HMS and WATFLOOD models that were recalibrated for PMF conditions. The impact of model choice was less significant than that of choice of calibration period. Model parameter uncertainty was explored in a limited capacity using Monte Carlo-based sampling; parameterization was also more impactful than choice of model. Regional Climate Model (RCM) data was used to project climate change impacts on PMF inputs. RCM projections were highly variable and produced the greatest range of uncertainty about the baseline. PMF is a critical dam design and safety consideration; this research improves the understanding of PMF estimates in the context of climate change and advancements in hydrological modelling.
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Keywords
Probable maximum flood, Probable maximum precipitation, Climate change, Dam safety, Design flood