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On predictive models of forage crops productivity by using weather variables: an application in the province of Ontario, Canada

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dc.contributor.supervisor Hao, Xuemiao (Warren Centre for Actuarial Studies and Research) Porth, Lysa (Warren Centre for Actuarial Studies and Research) en_US
dc.contributor.author Du, Shuai
dc.date.accessioned 2017-08-28T19:22:01Z
dc.date.available 2017-08-28T19:22:01Z
dc.date.issued 2017
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1993/32382
dc.description.abstract The objective of this thesis is to establish predictive models for forage yield (productivity, tons per acre) using most relevant weather variables, such as precipitation and temperature from April to June. The outcome of this study is expected to be utilized to design indices and/or to set triggers for CAT bonds on forage crops in Ontario for the Government of Canada as it is exposed to tremendous agriculture risk exposures. We use forage crops data in Ontario, Canada, as an example. We propose to apply a single predictive model on a whole region, which is a vast area consisting of eight to ten counties which have a similar geographical environment. Seven models are tested for five regions with variables such as monthly rainfall, three months cumulative rainfall, average temperature, CDD (cooling degree days), etc. A new approach called weighted average temperature adjustment (WATA) is employed to deal with temperature data. The results demonstrate that the selected predictive model(s) consistently and considerably better explain the relationship between forage yield and weather variables for regions. en_US
dc.subject Agriculture en_US
dc.subject yield en_US
dc.subject weather en_US
dc.subject precipitation en_US
dc.subject temperature en_US
dc.subject Models en_US
dc.subject productivity en_US
dc.title On predictive models of forage crops productivity by using weather variables: an application in the province of Ontario, Canada en_US
dc.degree.discipline Management en_US
dc.contributor.examiningcommittee Pai, Jeffrey (Warren Centre for Actuarial Studies and Research) Boyd, Milton (Agricultural and Food Sience, Agribusiness and Agricultural Economics ) en_US
dc.degree.level Master of Science (M.Sc.) en_US
dc.description.note October 2017 en_US


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