Dynamics of Multi-strain Age-structured Model for Malaria Transmission

Abstract

The thesis is based on the use of mathematical modeling and analysis to gain insightinto the transmission dynamics of malaria in a community. A new deterministic model for assessing the role of age-structure on the disease dynamics is designed. The model undergoes backward bifurcation, a dynamic phenomenon characterized by the co-existence of a stable disease-free and an endemic equilibrium of the model when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. It is shown that adding age-structure to the basic model for malaria transmission does not alter its essential qualitative dynamics. The study is extended to incorporate the use of anti-malaria drugs. Numerical simulations of the extended model suggest that for the case when treatment does not cause drug resistance (and the reproduction number of each of the two strains exceed unity), the model undergoes competitive exclusion. The impact of various effectiveness levels of the treatment strategy is assessed.