Can alternative heavy-duty trucking really change our world -A scenario analysis

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Date
2023-10-24
Authors
Chen, Wenxuan
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Abstract

China's rapid economic growth has led to substantial air pollution and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from logistics and heavy-duty trucks. Battery and hydrogen fuel cell trucks are being considered as two promising approaches for achieving zero emissions in heavy-duty trucking. This study focuses on the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region and presents four alternative trucking scenarios till 2050, considering the gradual integration of renewable resources. The research aims to compare the techno-economic benefits of these scenarios and assess the monetary health impacts in the PRD region. Using the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model and realistic projections from literature, the study calculates fuel consumption, emission reductions, and air pollution concentration changes within these scenarios. The monetary health benefit stemming from the adoption of alternative trucking are also carefully computed and compared with the investment. The results reveal that due to the relative new nature of these technologies, zero-emission scenarios, especially those involving hydrogen fuel cell trucks, incur higher net costs, even with the introduction of a carbon tax. This study employs a distinct quantitative measure through monetizing the health impact resulting from improvement in air quality. It provides a comprehensive analysis of alternative trucking strategies, with a particular focus on their applicability within a specified geographical context.

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Keywords
Alternative trucking, Pearl River Delta Region, Health Impact, GREET
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