Fleet Dynamics around a Seasonal Regulatory Closure on the Scotian Shelf.

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van der Lee, Adam
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I investigate aspects of fleet dynamics in a mobile gear, groundfish fishery, on the Scotian Shelf; an area subject to a seasonal area closure. Firstly, the direct impacts of the closure on the redistribution of fishing effort and the resultant catch rates of those “fishing the line” (FTL) were examined. Effort was found to concentrate within 30km of the closure boundary. Two areas of potential FTL strategy were identified, which produced variable catch rate trends. East of the closure, areas of highest catch rate corresponded to areas of greatest effort, while to the west, catch rate was often equalized throughout the region, analogous to the ideal free distribution (IFD). Secondly, two effort distributional models were compared: an IFD-based isodar model and a discrete choice model. The isodar was determined to be the preferred model because of both its consistently superior predictive performance and its greater simplicity.
Ideal Free Distribution, Seasonal regulatory closure, GAM, RUM, GEE, Isodar