Estimation of the determinants of gross migration in Manitoba

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Mathieson, Gerrard
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A number of regional development programs have been designed in Manitoba in part to promote or deter population redistribution, including the Agricultural and Rural Development Act, 1967 (ARDA), decentralization of provincial government offices to regional centres, and subsiduary programs such as STEP and PEP. The various programs have unique elements and represent approaches taken to resolve the problem of population redistribution. However, models of the migration process which permit an analysis of the determinants of migration to evaluate existing and future programs are not available. In this study an intraprovincial out-migration model disaggregated by level of urbanization is developed. The model utilizing data the records from the manitoba Hospital Commission covered population includes all the known migrants over the years 1969-73 within the Province of Manitoba. Using cross-sectional multiple regression analysis an econometric model of out-migration is enumerated... Results of the analysis show that migration in Manitoba is primarily a response to economic factors. The results validate income differentials, employment differentials, distance and ethnic background as significant determinants in the decision to migrate in Manitoba. Results suggest that policies and programs relating to population redistribution should take into consideration the estimated effects of these variables on the decision to migrate and the differing strength of the effect between different levels of ubranization and region.