A microanalytical model of migration : the Interlake area of Manitoba

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Tulloch, John Russell.
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The objective of this study is to construct a model of the migration process for the provision of information relevant for a regional labour force adjustment policy. The model is developed in the context of the Interlake Area of Manitoba. Subsidary objectives relate to the impact of manpower programs on the migration process, and an empirical investigation of the use of qualitative variables for quantifying social factors in economic research. The model developed has two components. In the first section the probability of migration is related to characteristics of individuals in the labour force, including demographic characteristics, education levels, income and existing manpower services. The technique used in this section is a modification of ordinary least squares regression analysis with a dichotomous dependent variable and a set of 0,1 independent variables. In the second section the results from the first section are generalized to give volume of migration figures... Estimates of the volume of migration indicate that underlying the small net change in the Interlake population attributable to migration, there are relatively large flows within and out of the area. The results show that large changes in labour force composition produce relatively small changes in the volume of migration.