Historic and future extreme weather events over southern Baffin Island
Historic and future extreme precipitation and wind events over southern Baffin Island, more specifically Iqaluit, Kimmirut, Pangnirtung and Cape Dorset are examined. Two sets of modeled re-analysis data, the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Regional Analysis 40 (ERA40) and the other the North American Regional Re-analysis (NARR) dataset were used to characterize the atmosphere during historic events. Two sets of CRCM data forced with Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM) data, one from 1961-1990 and the other from 2041-2070, are compared to assess the changes in extreme events in the future. Extreme events were defined by daily precipitation and sustained wind thresholds. Based on the CRCM future projection, events were inferred to increase in intensity for all communities and increase in frequency for 3 of the 4 communities. A shift in the Arctic storm season was also inferred in the future projection.
weather, extreme, Baffin Island, Iqaluit, climate change, storm tracks, precipitation, wind