Developing an integrated water management model for simulating the river-reservoir system operated by Manitoba Hydro

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Beiraghdar, Parya
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In Manitoba, most of the rivers traverse mid- to high-latitude regions that are vulnerable to climate change and therefore understanding the system behavior under future climate conditions is strategically very important for decision makers. Decision makers and water operating agencies must therefore have a comprehensive understanding of the system response to climate- and human-induced changes in the system. There are limitations associated with the current computer-aided models that Manitoba Hydro is using to simulate and optimize the river-reservoir system in terms of representing the complex interconnections and hydraulic relationships. Therefore, in this research, an integrated water management model is developed for the river-reservoir system operated by Manitoba Hydro. The MODSIM-DSS water management modeling tool is used for developing the simulation model with the ability of defining non-linear relationships for representing the complex backwater-affected relationship as well as the impacts of seasonality in the operation of control points in the system using the custom code editor. A large number of datasets including upstream inflow, demand, stage-storage-discharge relationship, and hydropower efficiency table are collected from Manitoba Hydro and used to set up the model. The developed model requires time-series of upstream and local inflows to simulate the system behavior under the current operating rules. The performance of the model is evaluated by analyzing the discrepancies between the simulated data and measured data. Model evaluation metrics and time series of results show a range of performance from adequate to excellent match between the simulated and historically measured data. Therefore, it is concluded that the developed model will be useful and usable for analyzing various climate- and human-induced changes in the system.
Integrated Water Management, Manitoba Hydro, MODSIM-DSS