Mathematical analysis of vaccination models for the transmission dynamics of oncogenic and warts-causing HPV types
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Date
2013-05-10
Authors
Alsaleh, Aliya
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Abstract
The thesis uses mathematical modeling and analysis to provide insights into the transmission
dynamics of Human papillomavirus (HPV), and associated cancers and warts, in a
community. A new deterministic model is designed and used to assess the community-wide
impact of mass vaccination of new sexually-active susceptible females with the anti-HPV
Gardasil vaccine. Conditions for the existence and asymptotic stability of the associated
equilibria are derived. Numerical simulations show that the use of Gardasil vaccine could
lead to the effective control of the spread of HPV in the community if the vaccine coverage
is at least 78%. The model is extended to include the dynamics of the low- and high-risk
HPV types and the combined use of the Gardasil and Cervarix anti-HPV vaccines. Overall,
this study shows that the prospect of the effective community-wide control of HPV using
the currently-available anti-HPV vaccines are encouraging.
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Keywords
Mathematical Biology, HPV, Cancers, Warts